"The expectation was that in 2014 emigration would have fallen, because the number of people available to emigrate does run out," said Rui Pena Pires. "I was surprised that it had still remained high in 2014."


According to Pires, it is "most probable that in 2015 it starts to fall".


The number of Portuguese who have emigrated in the past few years is only comparable with the late 1960s and early 1970s, he added.


The figures published by the Observatory, which is a unit of Lisbon's ISCTE university institute set up in cooperation with the government, are estimated on the basis of data gleaned in 15 European countries, plus Angola, Brazil and Mozambique.


"The data are provisional, because they are made with information available at the end of the first half of this year, lacking information on France and Switzerland," Pires explained.


The countries to which most Portuguese have been emigrating, he said, are the UK, Switzerland, France, Germany and Spain. The UK is out in front, with about 30,000 people a year, he added.