The study, published in The Lancet, estimates that 48 million people will die in distress following a health problem with the vast majority (83%) in poor or developing countries.

The 48 million people account for almost half (47%) of the world’s total deaths, according to projections by researchers at King´s College London, UK, including Bárbara Gomes, a palliative care specialist who teaches at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Coimbra. With this work the authors hope to help decision-makers adopt policies that alleviate patient suffering and avoid weakening health systems.

According to the study, it will be the oldest citizens who will suffer the most from serious illness, with cancer contributing in 2060 to the deaths of 16 million people. A total of six million dementia patients will die in 2060, projections point out.

For rich countries researchers generally estimate the death of three million people with palliative care needs in 2060, an increase of 57% compared to 2016. One of the study’s co-authors, Richard Harding, quoted in a statement by The Lancet, which bears the open access title The Lancet Health, estimates that only 14% of people in need worldwide receive effective palliative care, mostly in rich countries.