To justify maintaining the assessment, Fitch points to the budget surplus in 2023 and the good budget performance that it estimates will continue, even if the context of "political uncertainty" resulting from the elections gives rise to some "downside risks".

This was the first time this year that Fitch commented on the rating of Portuguese public debt, after on September 29 last year it raised Portugal's rating from 'BBB+' to 'A-', maintaining the perspective as being stable.

"Portugal recorded a budget surplus estimated at 1.3% of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] in 2023, 0.8 percentage points better than our forecast in the last rating review", says the North American rating house, a value that compares "favourably" with the average of economies with an 'A' rating, with Fitch also highlighting the "sustained debt reduction".

The rating agency states that the result of the March 10 elections - with Luís Montenegro being nominated for a Government that does not have the support of a majority of deputies in parliament - and the "difficult dynamics" between potential partners of the coalition could result in "a period of political uncertainty" with prolonged negotiations and the "possibility of new elections".

Even so, Fitch considers that "based on a certain degree of political consensus on prudent fiscal policies", its base scenario is that this situation "will not translate into significant fiscal easing".

Fitch's decision to maintain the assessment of Portuguese sovereign debt and the outlook corresponds to what was anticipated by analysts consulted by Lusa, who predicted that the agency would want to "wait and see", taking into account the current context of the formation of a new Government and political situation.

In the statement, the North American agency points to the "sustained reduction in debt", which fell from 135% of GDP at the end of 2020 to a ratio below 100% of GDP at the end of 2023, noting that it was one of the largest reductions among countries with equivalent ratings.

"The favourable debt dynamics are driven by the combination of strong real and nominal economic growth and budgetary surpluses", adding that they expect the debt ratio to fall to 92% by the end of 2025.