Waving a proverbial magic wand whilst declaring heartfelt peace ambitions seems like a bit of a non-strategy. Sadly, the folks at the White House seem oblivious to this. The last few months have demonstrated that ardent declarations regarding political wish lists seem like pie in the sky.

Modern America is fortunate enough to have long enjoyed the luxury of being able to pick and choose which fights it either does or doesn't engage with. This means that there are very few people walking the corridors of power in Washington who possess much by way of genuine, experience-based wherewithal when it comes to dealing with serious aggressors face-to-face.

Largely, America’s latter-day conflicts have been conducted on a “by-proxy” basis and there are some very good reasons for this. If the USA was seen to be openly involving itself with squabbles involving Russia or China, it might run the risk of sucking in the entire NATO Alliance and that would definitely not be a good move.

Question is, how long can such “proxy” wars be passed off as such? There's going to come a day when such actions will be seen as being “by-proxy” purely on a technicality. When (for example) American munitions fall on enemy territories, having been fired by American hardware, operated by personnel who have been specifically trained by the Americans; the “by-proxy" argument becomes an increasingly hard-sell.

The lives of American military leaders and their numerous strategists have been made all the more difficult when eminent politicians score some rather unnecessary own-goals. Openly berating friends and allies is one prime example. All this really means is that foes will be pricking their ears, listening intently whilst simultaneously upgrading their own tactics in response to receiving free intelligence.

The act of airing political dirty laundry in public isn't just uncouth, it's also inane. Whatever happened to old routines such as “keeping your powder dry?” or “playing your cards close to your chest”. Flagging military goals and objectives whilst simultaneously signaling how far (or not) you might be willing to go in order to achieve your military objectives is a schoolboy error.

Revealing red lines and limitations surely proves useful to enemies. “The enemy” doubtlessly revels in Western indiscretions whilst busily formulating their own plans based on such glaringly obvious strategic anomalies.

But, we've seen it all before. The great and the good routinely parade themselves behind impressive looking podiums to declare to the world how virtuous they are by (say) withdrawing forces from regions of conflict. They publicly beat their military chests whilst promising to deliver victories without deploying any “Western boots on the ground”. Would such a scenario even be plausible?

Surely, these kinds of open goals simply embolden our enemies? As Western forces retreat from disastrous conflicts, personnel return home with the promise of no further troop deployments. Therefore, with the knowledge that there is little or no Western appetite to repeat military misdemeanors, bad actors gleefully seek to occupy the vacuum. Half-hearted pledges to somehow defend Western interests without placing boots on the ground now means that the Middle East, and indeed the world at large, finds itself teetering ever closer to a series of conflicts that are collectively more than capable of leading the world into all out war.

The West has given away a trump card. Deterrent. Enemies of the West know that the best time to strike is when we're deemed to be at our weakest, whether that weakness is born of dwindling military prowess or an openly stated reluctance to utilise what little remains.

We’ve seen some of the above scenarios play out during the ongoing war in Ukraine, especially as Ukrainian forces (for the first time) make incursions deep into Russian territory. The Biden administration has always publicly insisted that American munitions would never fall onto Russian soil. Now, with recent Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory gathering pace, it is clear that American munitions are indeed falling onto Russian soil. And herein lies the danger; because this represents a massive red rag to an already frothing Russian bear. As far as the Kremlin is concerned, Biden's pledges of “de-escalation” hold little by way of credence.

From one ugly conflict to another. With all that's been going on between Israel and the Palestinians, there is one immensely cunning player that stands out. Iran.

Iran has the power to not only threaten the peace (what little there is of it) in the Middle East but it also poses a threat to global stability. Following Israel’s assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the Middle East now teeters on an even greater precipice as the world awaits to see what might be the nature and intensity of any Iranian reprisals. Unlike jabbering, podium posturing Western elites, Tehran is a far more wily player. Rather than stand their suited and booted leaders to crow from behind crest-embellished podiums, Iran plays a far more sophisticated game. It keeps mouths firmly shut. They are playing clever mind-games, psychologically grinding down their enemies.

Biden has a clear message for Tehran when it comes to potential reprisals. “Don’t!”. But “don't” is a bit like Biden himself - an old gem that's lost much of its luster. Biden issued the exact same instruction only last April. Back then, the simple “don’t” warning came just before hundreds of drones and missiles were fired deep into Israeli territory.

It's difficult to avoid the conclusion that Tehran has verily run rings around the West. Trump pulled out of Obama’s nuclear deal only to replace it with sanctions. Two years later, Trump advocated the killing of Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian terror strategist. But all this failed to slow Iran’s progress towards building nuclear weapons. All it did was halt the supply of resources to Iran’s proxy militias (such as Hamas & Hezbollah). But not for long.

Iran sees appeasement as weakness. The Ayatollah seldom passes up any golden opportunities.


Biden accelerated appeasement by releasing $16 billion of previously frozen Iranian assets just before the tragic events of October 7th. Even after the infamous Hamas attacks, Biden’s White House further relaxed sanctions allowing Iran to access another $10 billion pot. The Tehran regime reacted in the complete opposite way from what the White House had anticipated.

Is it fair to conclude that Biden has arrived at the final days of his presidency and has actually managed to eclipse his chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

There's little doubt that our world is in turmoil. Both the Chinese and the Russians seem emboldened by Washington’s bungling tendencies as America flits back and forth between presidents and displays its own internal ideological disparities.

Back at ground level, America’s only real ally in the Middle East is left to defend itself with no help from Washington.


Meanwhile, a dangerous, malign and oppressive theocracy who happen to be bedfellows with both Beijing and Moscow are rapidly advancing to become a nuclear superpower right in the heart of a Middle Eastern melting pot. If that alone isn't cause for concern, what is?

Author

Douglas Hughes is a UK-based writer producing general interest articles ranging from travel pieces to classic motoring. 

Douglas Hughes