The root of this persistent rise lies primarily in the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. Even with recent government initiatives and changes in the housing market, the lack of available homes continues to drive prices upward.

One of the key factors contributing to this trend is the shortage of housing stock. The demand for homes, especially in urban centers like Lisbon and Porto, consistently outstrips the supply. This imbalance is exacerbated by the limited availability of new housing projects and a lack of affordable options for young buyers and families. Even though the government has introduced incentives for first-time buyers under 35 years of age, including tax exemptions and subsidies, the benefits are muted by the scarcity of homes. These measures have helped stimulate demand, but without a corresponding increase in housing supply, prices continue to climb.

Another reason why housing prices remain high is the rising cost of materials and construction, which further limits the pace at which new housing can be brought to market. This, coupled with the slow approval process for new housing developments, contributes to the ongoing shortage of homes. Although new projects are being announced, particularly in the outskirts of major cities, they are not sufficient to meet the surging demand from both domestic and international buyers.

Urban centers like Lisbon and Porto are particularly affected, but the trend is also extending to peripheral areas. Recent data shows that while price increases in central districts have slowed, suburban and rural areas are experiencing sharper hikes. This shift is driven by buyers looking for more affordable housing options outside city centers, leading to increased demand in these less urbanized areas. As a result, prices in peripheral regions have been climbing at a faster rate than in the cities themselves.

In addition to domestic demand, foreign investment continues to play a significant role in driving up prices. International buyers, drawn by Portugal’s favorable climate, quality of life, and relatively lower cost of living compared to other European countries, are contributing to the ongoing pressure on housing prices. While this influx of foreign capital has benefited the economy, it has also made it more difficult for local buyers to compete, particularly in areas like Lisbon and the Algarve, where foreign ownership is prevalent.

Rental prices have also been increasing steadily. While the rental market initially appeared to stabilize this year, rents are still significantly higher than they were a few years ago. This rise in rental costs further complicates the situation for those unable to purchase a home, as they are forced to contend with a competitive rental market. With limited rental properties available, especially in prime locations, prices have continued to escalate.

Looking ahead, experts predict that while housing prices may not rise as sharply as in previous years, they are unlikely to decrease in the near future. The lack of sufficient housing stock, coupled with ongoing demand from both local and international buyers, means that the market will remain competitive. Without a significant increase in the construction of new, affordable homes, the trend of rising prices is expected to persist.

In conclusion, despite government efforts to ease the strain on homebuyers and renters, the fundamental issue remains a lack of housing supply. Until this imbalance is addressed, either through accelerated construction or other market interventions, housing prices in Portugal are likely to remain high. While the pace of increases may slow, the underlying pressure on the market shows no signs of easing, leaving many prospective buyers and renters facing an uphill battle in securing affordable housing.

Author

Paulo Lopes is a multi-talent Portuguese citizen who made his Master of Economics in Switzerland and studied law at Lusófona in Lisbon - CEO of Casaiberia in Lisbon and Algarve.

Paulo Lopes