The document from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, entitled “World population prospects for 2024”, states that among the countries that are expected to remain close to their current population size until 2054 are Portugal, Spain, Germany, Georgia, Russian Federation, and Uruguay.

In the chapter dedicated to populations, the data indicates that “for these countries and areas, population stabilisation can create additional opportunities to eradicate poverty, expand access to health care and education, promote gender equality, improve social systems social protection, move towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns and adopt measures to protect the environment and mitigate the negative effects of climate change”.

“This, however, will require appropriate policies to be adopted based on each country’s specific circumstances and priorities,” warns the UN.

The document also highlights that continued progress in reducing mortality, the only demographic component expected to contribute positively to population change in this group, has resulted in an increase in life expectancy at birth.

The data shows that, at the group level, life expectancy increased from 70.9 years in 1995 to 78.8 years in 2024.

In 2024, Hong Kong (Special Administrative Region of China), Japan, and the Republic of South Korea had the highest levels of life expectancy at birth (at least 84 years) in the group and in the world.

Portugal is among the “other countries with high life expectancy at birth”, along with Italy and Spain, in Europe, and Guadeloupe and Martinique, in the Caribbean.

In contrast, life expectancy at birth is the lowest in Jamaica and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, in Latin America, and the Caribbean, and in the Republic of Moldova, in Europe, with levels below 72 years.

“These differences are expected to decrease, but not disappear, in the coming decades,” says the UN.

The United Nations adds that in countries where fertility levels are already below replacement levels, the emigration of people of reproductive age could contribute to further population decline.

“In 62 percent of the countries and areas in the group that already record low levels of fertility, emigration could contribute to further reducing the size of the population between now and 2054”, it reads.


Immigration

International migration also has an indirect impact on the number of births in countries of destination and countries of origin. In countries such as Albania, Armenia, Guadeloupe or Jamaica, the emigration of large numbers of women of reproductive age may reduce the number of births occurring there, while in others, such as Portugal, the Russian Federation or Spain, immigration has the opposite effect.

From a demographic perspective, births “lost in emigration” or “obtained through immigration” have both short- and long-term consequences, as girls born today are women of reproductive age in the next generation.

In countries with high emigration rates, creating more opportunities for decent work and promoting return migration may be approaches worth exploring and may be more effective in slowing population decline in the short term than policies aimed at increasing levels of employment. fertility, concludes the document.