Whilst the IMF’s new forecast of 1.4% is only a whisker down on the 1.5% hitherto in effect, the outlook falls well short of the government’s 1.8% expected level of growth.
The Washington institution also upped its outlook for unemployment and expecting 11.6% of the active population to remain out of a job, only fractionally more negative than the government’s outlook of 11.3%.
Inflation is also expected to remain in the doldrums, on 0.7% against the former 1.3% forecast for the year with growth going forwards in or around the 1.2% level through to 2021.
All of this correspondingly undermines the government’s outlook for an improved financial position with the IMF seeing this year’s budgetary deficit coming in on 2.9%, thus worse than the 2.7% level forecast last October and a long way short of the government’s 2.2% target.
The IMF would not seem a great believer in the Socialist minority government’s ability to reform state expenditure in predicting the government will still be running a deficit of 2.8% in 2021.