So, after putting all the information together, I thought it would be interesting to share what I found out. It is a topic that does not get much attention in everyday conversation, but in these crazy days, and affects a lot of Portuguese businesses, and my biggest worry is that it could even impact jobs, prices, and our economy.

In 2024, Portugal exported over €5.3 billion worth of goods to the U.S. That is a big number! But here is the important part: almost half of these exports (around €2.36 billion) are currently not affected by the new tariffs being introduced by the U.S. government.

That is the good news. Most of the "safe" exports are pharmaceuticals (like medicines), which are made up of over 1.1 billion petroleum products, with another €1 billion. These are big, important industries for us. So far, they have been left out of the higher taxes and, or tariffs that the U.S. is applying to many imported goods.

But here is the catch: things can change fast. The U.S. administration has already said they might remove the special treatment for medicines, and once that happens, Portugal could see higher taxes on those too. Honestly, nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow, or what new decision will come next. As I was reading, I realized that with all the unpredictability and especially from one day to the next propaganda of the White House Administration, it is hard to know how long this information will stay current.

Another thing I learned is how many Portuguese companies depend heavily on the U.S. market. Out of the 4,255 businesses that exported to the U.S. last year, 15% rely 100% on the U.S. for their international sales. That is 624 companies, responsible for nearly €1 billion in exports. And around 645 more companies get over half of their foreign income from U.S. customers. That means even minor changes in taxes or trade rules could seriously affect them.

Some of the most exposed sectors are textiles, ceramics and glass, and beverages (like wine). These industries could feel the impact first if new tariffs were hit.

The Portuguese government knows this is a risk, so they have announced support measures. They are creating new credit lines worth €3.5 billion, including some grants, to help exporters. There is also support for finding new markets, so businesses do not have to depend only on the U.S. and that is in my point of view the best news out of this.

Meanwhile, the European Union is trying to negotiate and avoid a full-on trade war, but again, we should be pragmatic and realistic, it is hard to predict anything when decisions seem to change overnight.

Even the tourism industry is worried. If prices go up in the U.S. due to tariffs and inflation, fewer Americans might be able to travel abroad. And since American tourists are already one of Portugal’s biggest spenders (they brought in almost €2.9 billion in 2023), that could also have an effect.

So, after reading and cross-checking all this, I just wanted to share it. It is one of those stories that might not make headlines every day, but it is good to be aware, especially because, when it comes to international trade these days, things can change with a single tweet.

Let us see what tomorrow brings.


Author

Paulo Lopes is a multi-talent Portuguese citizen who made his Master of Economics in Switzerland and studied law at Lusófona in Lisbon - CEO of Casaiberia in Lisbon and Algarve.

Paulo Lopes