According to the summer 2025 edition of the report on the short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, released today by the EU executive, wine production is expected to be 10% below the five-year average, with an annual decline of 5%, reaching a 20-year low (137 million hectoliters) in the 2024/2025 period.

According to Brussels, this is due to a 25% drop in wine production in France, 11% in Germany, and 8% in Portugal, which increases of 15% in Italy and 10% in Spain fail to offset.

Olive oil production is recovering sharply, with a 37% increase through June, leading to a drop in prices.

Poultry production is also expected to grow, supported by growing demand, and milk deliveries remain stable, the Commission anticipates.

On the other hand, production prospects show a downward trend for sugar and ruminant meat, as well as wine.

Meanwhile, food inflation in the EU remains higher than overall (3.1% compared to 2.2% in May), although some stability—or even deflation—is observed in some food product categories.

Despite historically high levels, EU farmers have recently seen a stabilization of input costs.

The report predicts that oil prices will fall, although tensions in the Middle East could affect this situation.

Geopolitical instability, climate-related challenges, and the evolving trade policies of major global players, such as the United States and China, pose threats to the stability of global markets and the EU, Brussels warns.