The ECB Governing Council "decided today [11 June] to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points," as "the war in the Middle East is generating inflationary pressures and the decision to raise interest rates appears robust against a range of scenarios, which map out how the shock could evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area," reads the decision published today.

The last increase in key rates had occurred in 2023, and a pause period followed until June 2024, when the ECB began cutting interest rates. Since July 2025, the central bank has kept interest rates unchanged, but is now raising them by 25 basis points.

With this decision, the interest rates applicable to the deposit facility, main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be increased to 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65%, respectively, effective from 17 June 2026.

The ECB Governing Council considers that it "remains well positioned to deal with the uncertainty caused by the war", also assuring that it will closely monitor the situation and follow "a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in defining the appropriate monetary policy stance".

The forecasts, prepared by Eurosystem experts, have also been updated, indicating that global inflation will average 3% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 in the euro area.

Economic growth has been revised downwards to 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028, "reflecting a more pronounced impact of the war on commodity markets, real incomes and confidence".