Can Portugal dare to dream?

The simulations place Portugal at the top of their group with a 67.08% probability of finishing at the top of Group F, which it will share with the Republic Czech, Turkey, and Georgia, in the competition to be held in Germany.

Looking further ahead, Roberto Martínez's men have a 95.82% chance of reaching the round of 16, 61.26% of reaching the 'quarters', 39.10% of reaching the 'semi-finals', 23.99 % of reaching the final, and 14.74% of becoming champions.

Here’s the results for my 10,000 EURO 2024 simulations (seen on @jamesallcott’s recent video).

- Portugal are favourites, winning almost 15% of the time
- England in 2nd and are champions in 11.5% of simulations
- Scotland with a 50/50 chance of getting out the group

🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/Vpi5rC3rVt

— Craig Edwards (@UnderthePitch) April 26, 2024

On the list of favourites to lift the trophy, England (11.48%), France (10.99%), Spain (10.85%), Belgium (7.76%), Germany, the Netherlands (both with 5.76%), Denmark (5.27%), Croatia (4.93%) and Italy (4.67%).

The researcher used a neural network, which took into account the results achieved by each team in the last five, ten, and twenty games, as well as the position in the FIFA rankings, the performances in the last Euros and World Cups, and as well as the performances in qualifying rounds.