In its October 2025 Economic Bulletin, the central bank forecasts that, after a 0.7% increase in 2024, employment will grow by 1.8% this year, followed by a slowdown, with the increase falling to 0.9% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027.

“A slowdown in employment and a stabilization of the unemployment rate at low levels are projected,” summarizes the BdP, noting that, after an average growth of 1.3% in 2023 and 2024 and a 1.9% increase in the first half of 2025, "employment is expected to continue to increase over the projection horizon, albeit progressively smaller."

Regarding unemployment, the BdP estimates that the rate will fall from 6.4% in 2024 to 6.2% in 2025, then rise to 6.3% next year and remain at the same percentage in 2027.

According to the central bank, the employment dynamics over the period from 2025 to 2027 "reflect contained increases in the activity rate—which is expected to reach historically high levels—and in the working-age population."

"Population growth will continue to be sustained by the influx of foreign labour into the country, albeit with gradually decreasing flows, after the peak observed in 2023," it states.