In the Stability Program for the period 2023-2027, the Government lists the main risks to the macroeconomic forecasts underlying the document, considering that “they are essentially of an external nature”.

However, it points out that “in the Portuguese economy there are elements that could potentially mitigate these negative impacts”.

“The presented macroeconomic scenario is influenced by the current international context marked by the high degree of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the war in Ukraine, by a possible resurgence of disruptions in the energy and food product markets, and by the effects of the normalisation of monetary policy in the fight against inflation”.

In this sense, the study he points out that the maintenance of high inflation could lead central banks to greater interest rate hikes, which, associated with the recent turbulence in the financial markets, “could increase the risk of financing conditions”, which will have an impact on the confidence of businesses and consumers.

“The resident sectors maintain some relevant vulnerabilities, particularly with regard to the sensitivity of debt service to the rise in official interest rates, with emphasis on companies and individuals, given the prevalence of credit with variable interest rates”, adding that, however, there are “mitigating factors”, such as the reduction in the debt ratio of individuals in recent years, the situation in the labour market and support measures.

To mitigate the impact of any negative risks, it lists internal forces, including the resilience of the labour market, the “growth of the tourism sector”, “less exposure to the volatility of energy prices due to the operation of the exceptional mechanism and temporary adjustment of electricity production costs with a reflection in the formation of the market price of electricity in the wholesale reference of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL)", as well as "the high incorporation of renewable sources in the production of electricity at national level".

It also points to the “current solidity of public finances” and the “investments associated with the various programs financed by European funds, such as the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) or the PT 2030.

The Stability Programme, which the Government had to submit to the European Commission, will be discussed in the Portuguese parliament on April 26.