"Although everyone says that [zero VAT] is not felt very much, the data show that it exists and that it has a more positive expectation effect that affects consumption, with people achieving some improvement in their quality of life", says the general director of Centromarca in a report by Dinheiro Vivo.

Data from the Shopper Insights study by Kantar Portugal, analyzed by Centromarca, shows that during the first six months of the year, Portuguese families went shopping more often, but they bought fewer things, although they left more money in the supermarket with each purchase. In other words, the purchase frequency increased, year-on-year, by 5.4%, but the volume in each purchase was 10.1% lower, although the invoice was 3.7% higher.

But it is when analyzing the data by quarter, that it is better understood how zero VAT impacted household consumption: the stabilisation of prices led to a 1.4% reduction in the number of trips to the supermarket between April and June, compared to the previous three months, with the Portuguese bringing 4.1% more items in their basket, although they are only to pay 2.1% more for the purchases they are making.

"With the drop in the price of the most essential goods, the Portuguese are now able to buy more products outside this basket", says Marta Santos, director of clients & analytics at Kantar Portugal. Proof of this is the fact that the volume per purchase act "grows much more sharply" outside the zero VAT basket than within it. The study data show that, in the second quarter, the Portuguese bought 1% more items from the zero VAT basket, but spent, on average, 4% less. On the other hand, purchases of products not covered by zero VAT grew by 6% in volume and 2.8% in average value.

The most benefited categories are beers, laundry and household cleaning products, but also fresh seafood and pastries.

"The effect of zero VAT takes place at several levels. It has a direct impact on the affected products, but it was felt on all other products on sale in supermarkets. That is, it lowered some and avoided the increase of others and that makes consumers feel mentally more predisposed to buy", says the general director of Centromarca. Pedro Pimentel adds: "No matter how slight the savings are, it is already beginning to feel that they are being redirected not to the same products, but to others, which means that people are taking advantage of this to buy better food, with more or better quality, or possibly both".